Today’s Stocks Market
Today’s Stocks Market
What the European Crisis Really Means for the Stock Market
You’ve got to love today’s stock market.
It’s up over 100 points one day, down over 100 points the next. When the market drops more than one percent, the popular Internet sites are quick to quote analysts who say the market rally is over. When the market is up over 100 points, we get other analysts telling us that Dow Jones 12,000 is in the cards.
There is no doubt that the financial crisis in Greece can be contagious. Spain, Portugal, Italy…are they next? I think they are, and I have written about this in the past. The euro unraveling is a good thing for the American dollar and a very good thing for Britain, which early on decided to pass on joining the euro, deciding to keep its own currency.
In each of the past three years, when I’ve travelled to Europe, I’ve come away wondering how the citizens of these countries support themselves. A school teacher in Italy makes about 20,000 euros ($30,000 U.S.) a year, while the median salary for the same job in the U.S. is about $50,000 — but the cost of living is much greater in Europe! (The best job to get in Europe is a government job. The pay is great, so are the pensions and health benefits. I’m afraid America may be going the same route.)
The real concern here, and I hate to keep bringing it up, is interest rates. If Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy default on their debt, interest rates in the euro zone will need to rise substantially to attract capital. This will put pressure on interest rates to rise in North America.
So, there is no question about interest rates rising globally. The real question is: when will the bear market rally that started in March 2009 call it quits? The stock market is the smartest investor in the world. It knows higher interest rates are ahead of us.
But, at the same time, I believe that the bear market has not finished its job of bringing more people back into the stock market. I remain in the camp that believes that the bear market rally has more room on the upside, European economic crisis or not.
Michael’s Personal Notes:
Early this past Sunday morning, I went with my kids and some of their friends to the Apple store at Central Park in Manhattan. There were more people at that store than you would find in Sunday morning mass. For today’s young kids, Apple has become their religion of technology.
For the remainder of the weekend, I kept thinking about the sea of people I saw at the “Mac” store. Why is Apple so successful as a business, I kept wondering? My conclusion is that Apple has become a culture. Masterfully, the company moved from building a business to creating a culture. And for today’s young people, it is all about culture. I believe that Apple has mastered this more than any other company on earth.
You may have heard about the “iPad.” It is Apple’s newest creation. A 9.7-inch, wireless touch screen, on which the user can watch a video, play games, surf the Web, read electronic books and even download applications. Apple sold over one million iPads in less
than 30 days. Of course, many of the buyers were current Apple fans who couldn’t wait to get their hands on the next Apple gadget.
The textbooks on building a business need to be changed, because times have changed. Creating a community, creating a culture, is what leads to success today. We are a long way from when Sears Roebuck came out with the first mail-order catalogue in 1888. Back then, it was about convenience; today it is about culture. There is no convenience for the hundreds of people travelling to a Mac store early Sunday AM, but there is culture.
(Just a note to the many subscribers who e-mailed me last week to say it was Charlie Sheen that stars in the sitcom, “Two and a Half Men.” I realize this. That particular “Michael’s Personal Notes” piece was on my distaste for TV and the mixing up of Martin and Charlie
Sheen was a joke on how little I know about TV and its stars. My readers are very sharp. We had over 100 e-mails pointing out the difference between Martin and Charlie Sheen.)
Where the Market Stands:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opens this morning up 4.7% for the year.
What He Said:
“The U.S. decreased interest rates in 2004 to their lowest level in 46 years. And what did Americans do with their access to easy money? They borrowed and borrowed some more, investing the borrowed money into real estate. Looking ahead, perhaps the Fed’s actions (of bringing interest rates down so low as to entice consumers to borrow more than they can afford) will one day be regarded as one of the most costly errors committed by it or any other banking system in the last 75 years.” Michael Lombardi in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL,
July 21, 2005. Long before anyone was thinking of a banking crisis, Michael was warning that the coming real estate bust would cause havoc with the banking system.
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