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PARIS — The European Main Bank upgraded its growth outlook for the euro zone on Thursday, but sought to temper optimism by caution that the nascent economic recovery would be irregular .
In another note of caution , the central bank manager , Jean-Claude Trichet, also refused to define when the bank might begin unwinding the extraordinary steps it took over the last year to support Europe’s banking sector.
“ Today it is not the time to go out , but we are watchful , we are permanently looking at the situation ,” Mr. Trichet said at a news conference . “We have no pre-commitment in any respect.”
The bank left its criterion interest rate at 1 percent, where it has been since May, after a meeting of its governing conference in Frankfurt. Mr. Trichet told a news conference that the final word had been unanimous, that current borrowing prices were “ appropriate” and that “price developments are expected to remain subdued.”
Over all , analysts concluded that the bank was in no hurry to revote the measures it had taken — including deep interest rate cuts and efforts to inject more cash into the system — to stimulate the economy.
Still, on the same day that the Organization for Economic Interaction and Development gave a brighter attitude for the world’s major economies, the central bank lifted its own growth projections as well.
“There are increasing signs of stabilization in economic activity in the euro sphere and elsewhere,” Mr. Trichet said. He cited the inventory period , a pickup in exports and the influence of financial and monetary stimulus.
The chief bank now expects growth of 0.2 percent in the euro area next year. In June, it estimated a decline of 0.3 percent. The new figure is relatively traditional , compared with a market consensus of 0.8 percent.
Mr. Trichet did not regret the possibility that growth could turn positive before mid-2010. But he was scrupulous to say the recovery would be “very gradual ” and “rather uneven,” because some factors supporting growth were momentary and some banks and businesses were still repairing their balance sheets.
“Prudence and warning are of the entity in the present situation,” he said.
Nick Kounis, the main European economist at Fortis Bank in Amsterdam, said the day the chief bank started to raise interest taxes again still appeared “some way off.”
The slow rebound will serve to restrain price increases, Mr. Trichet said.
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