December Effect Stocks
December Effect Stocks
More than 10 million tons of steel over the city of steel stock price or collapse
HC Valve Network: 10 million tons of steel stock market dammed lake has gradually
As of December 11, stocks in major cities of steel reached 11.57 million tons of society, with the increase of 109% over the same period last year. Off-season down the stocks should rise, not fall, rising for four weeks. The reasons behind the high inventory? Some analysts worry that, 1157 tonnes of steel community steel stocks has little effect on the whole, but if the credit policy changes, market confidence, a very short period of time it may become the incentive for steel prices fall.
An annual turnover of more than 3 billion yuan of the traders told the China Securities newspaper reporter, his hand has reached 10 thousand tons of inventory, and low when 3,000 tons. Traders bet on next year’s inflation expectations, logic is very clear. Current steel prices in the cost line, steel mills will not lose money selling stupid again. Traders are also bold to increase inventory levels, lower prices do not rush to ship. This easy credit behind bank backing, steel and traders do not have to worry about cash flow break. The hands of the “grain”, the hearts of not panic. Moreover, there is a wave of the traditional spring season market.
Steel traders to gamble with high inventory inflation of success options?
First look at the inventory in the end what kind of high. In accordance with usual practice, by the end of the market off-season, steel stocks were generally lower than the year high of 40%. In March this year, high stock levels up to 12 million tons, which means that the current inventory of 400 million tons of “inflated.” Next year’s market can digest is hard to say. But one thing is clear is that the structural steel inventory risks are accumulated. At 11.57 million tons of stock, rebar up to 4.2 million tons, an increase of 170%; rolled coil up to 3.87 million tons, an increase of 178%; wire (3855,17.00,0.44%) 1.12 million tons, an increase of 83 %; cold 1.13 million tons, an increase of 25%; the board 1.25 million tons, an increase of 16%. Thus, the risk of rebar and hot rolled coil has been very high.
Although analysts believe that in December last year, the International Financial The crisis stage, the domestic steel stocks low, the sample comparability is not strong. However, in September this year, domestic steel stocks are still up 9.1 million tons, and last year has not yet affected by the crisis in September compared to stocks, is still higher than 55%.
Present, and as traders bet next year’s Steel City market were steel, due to abundant cash flow, so dare to full capacity. Since June of this year, the domestic crude steel production has more than 6 consecutive months of last year’s high point. High-yield market demand is not entirely reason, a considerable portion of the real steel into a stock.
Then the hands of the steel mill and customer inventory there? This is still unknown. Some analysts believe that the end of 2009, domestic steel stocks should total 70 million tons -8,000 tons, about 20 million tons higher than 2008 -3000 tons. Once the market sign of trouble is very high stocks plummeting steel prices could be short “fuse.”
Steel traders collectively “bet up” will appear a happy ending it? Market in 2010 will Ruqierzhi it? You know, markets tend to “go the wrong Jian Feng”, “determined to grow flowers flowers do not open, unintentional positive outcomes” endless examples.
2009 more than a month before the Spring Festival, traders began to “Dong Chu,” preparing for the coming year, “spring” market. The end result, we have seen, February 16, 2009, that is, the second week after the Spring Festival, the steel market panic plummeted until April, steel prices decline 20% on average. A large number of “gambling up” traders “ruining.”
About the past of 2009, domestic steel prices varied in different stages running low volatility state. It is predicted that domestic crude steel production in 2010 will exceed 700 million tons. Obviously, the huge steel production capacity of the tremendous pressure of rising domestic steel prices are expected to maintain a reasonable level. Steel traders gamble at this time next year, inflation, the risks inherent in them may have become an open secret.
Ross Burland RationalFX CNBC 8DEC08
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