Brian, Today was wild! Do you think we test the lows on the S & P? Does someone step up and buy a Canroy? Oil to mid 80’s, old to 760?. VIX to 37?, Candian dollar down 2.3%. Any thoughts on the future?
My gut is this is just a correction but all fundementals are in place for lower dollar, higher gold, higher oil and another buyout of a Canroy…
Jake, I agree this is a pretty ugly market and another leg down in what began in July. Amazing how all the gains of 3 months (since the recovery in mid-August) can be wiped out in a week. This is not a very confident market. People are looking for any reason to sell and are sure getting out now. There is a lot of fear about the housing and financial markets taking down the economy.
I think this market action is showing a rotation from real estate to consumer durables to finance to retail and now on to tech and commodities, including oil and gold, as fear of a global recession spreads (though not much evidence of that). The good news for our commodity plays is they are all high yield, which makes this whole process easier to deal with. The finance stocks bounced a little today and were up against this lousy market. The home builders are also kind of washed out, though I think there must be another leg down for them and I wouldn’t get close to them until there are some bankruptcies, signalling the end of the collapse (as supply is taken off the market).
I definitely think we will test the lows of August in the Dow and S&P;, which aren’t that far away now. We could break through and fall back to the March lows. But I don’t think the environment is nearly bad enough to fall to the 2002 lows (7500 on the Dow and 800 on S&P;). The financials will establish the bottom and lead the market back, maybe within the next 3-4 months. They always lead the market back.
The big question is do we go into recession and if so, how big a recession? If the rest of the world continues to grow and doesn’t collapse, it will help pull the US stock market out by continuing to purchase our goods keeping our exports strong and helping the industrial base build employment.
I think the bigger banks will end up consuming the weaker banks once most of the trouble is on the table. But we still don’t know how bad the trouble is, so all the banks are getting whacked. I have picked Citibank and Bank of America to survive and eventually thrive. But they are both hurting now and I was early on them, so it has hurt me. But their 6% yields make it a little better.
The good news in all of this is that the market P/E never got that high in this cycle (20) and has come down now to around 16. If we hit 11,500 on the Dow and the earnings just stay flat (no growth), we will be back under 14 for the first time since the early 90s. That was a good time to be investing in the market since the Dow was only about 3000 then (1992) and is now 4x higher.
I don’t know where all the commodities could go if we get the R word going. There is a lot of fundamental reasons for gold and oil to go higher in the long term (growth of demand in the BRIC economies and ever more expensive to produce or limited supply). But over a period of a year or two, reasons for price are more technical and speculative in nature. I think 760 is the minimum pullback, but 650 is a lot more likely. If you do a chart on gold for seven years, you see that the bottom of the uptrend channel is about 650 right now.
Same thing with Oil, you can look at the channel (http://www.chartsrus.com/chart1.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartindCRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTCL) and see the lower trend line is about 65. Oil stocks, like drillers, could go down 35-40% (I am cutting my exposure to drillers) and the Canroys could go down 15-20%, though the dividend should keep them from falling too far. I am looking at writing (selling) more puts on PWE if the price gets down to $27, which it might the next couple of days. I would try to get a $1.50 premium on the $25s (maybe on the March contract). That offers me protection down to 23.50. I think the chance of the dividend on PWE getting cut is very small, so that price would be super secure since the annual dividend is over 3.00, putting the yield when the price is at $25 a t over 12%.
When VIX hits 37-40, that is the bottom, as it was last time (in August) and almost every correction before. That shows a lot of volatility that can only happen when there is some “sell-off” panic in the market. VIX was at 31 today, so on its way.
If you really want some excitment and have your options account set up, try buying at-the-money calls on your favorite names, especially if they are high volatility. Citibank (C) and BAC would be two good ideas. Cisco is another one. You can buy the March 08 $35 C call for $3 right now. That means the break even is $38 on March 17. If the stock goes back above $41 between now and then, which it definitely could, it will be a double on your bet (and if it got back to $44, it would be a triple $9 divided by $3). But if it ends up less than $35, you lose the investment.
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It has been a few weeks since the last post on the story of General Growth Companies and Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman. By all accounts, everything is going as originally speculated.
After a brief run to $3 per share, the stock has pulled back down to $1.65. This is not due to any fundamental change, but just the fact the buzz wore off the stock, temporarily. If anything, the recent court rulings and general improvement in the economy and banking sector bode well for General Growth. The objective of Pershing Square and most likely the bankruptcy court, is to buy enough time for the credit markets to thaw sufficiently that financing can be extended for the properties in question.
This is the conclusion of the attached presentation. The judge appears to be leaning towards a series of “cram downs” whereby the court will force the lenders to each property to extend terms of the mortgages and loans in such a way that both the lender and the borrower are made whole. This would be the ideal situation for General Growth and its shareholders as there might not be any dilution at all under this circumstance and no property liquidation.
I purchased more shares last week and will continue to add periodically as the story plays out and the prospects become clearer.
Here is a lengthy presentation on the status of GGP (now GGWPQ.PK as it trades OTC as a pink sheet) from Pershing Square in late May. Special attention should be paid to the financial models in the middle of the presentation. Ackman is using these same arguments in bankruptcy court in his role as largest individual shareholder and board director:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/15940168/GGP-Presentation-5272009
Including predecessor companies, GGP has been in the shopping center business for over fifty years. One of the nation’s largest REITs, General Growth owns, develops, operates, and/or manages shopping malls in 44 states, as well as Master Planned Communities in three states, including Summerlin in Nevada, The Woodlands and Bridgeland in Texas, and Columbia in Maryland. GGP has ownership interests in and/or management responsibility for more than 200 regional shopping malls totaling approximately 200 million square feet of retail space.
General Growth has excelled as a buyer, seller, developer, and manager of real estate since 1954. In November of 2004, General Growth completed the merger of The Rouse Company. The merger added 37 regional shopping malls, four community centers, and six mixed-use projects totaling 40 million square feet, as well as the Master planned Community business, to General Growth’s portfolio of owned shopping centers.
Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, GGP has approximately 4,200 employees nationwide. Our malls feature more than 24,000 retail stores and anchor department stores, as well as theaters, sit-down restaurants, ice skating rinks and other forms of family entertainment.
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Ways to Avoid Bankruptcy
There are several options available for you if you are in credit card debt and do not want to declare bankruptcy. One option is obtaining a debt consolidation loan and closing all existing credit lines. Debt consolidation is where you take a new unsecured loan and use the funds to pay off your outstanding debts. All this does is revolve your debt so its not really a wise choice.
What an unsecured debt consolidation loan will do is consolidate all your unsecured debt and help you avoid bankruptcy. This new money can save you hundreds of dollars per month if you choose to use your loan to pay off existing debt – especially high rate credit cards. Even if you don’t own a home, you could qualify for their debt consolidation loan. But dont forget now you will have to pay this loan back.
Debt consolidation loans are repayable over a longer term at a relatively low interest rate. This means that the monthly repayments are lower. If the loan is secured on your property then the interest rate and payments may be even lower.
But you must compare the pros and of debt consolidation loans before taking the plunge. There are two options for consolidating debts – either you borrow money to pay off all your debts or seek assistance from a debt consolidation program. Which option will meet your needs has a lot to do with whether you can qualify for qualify for low mortgage rates on debt consolidation loans , and the total amount of debt you need to consolidate.
Borrowing for debt consolidation immediately eliminates multiple debt payments. All debt collection actions eliminated. Seeking debt consolidation services immediately decreases your monthly payments. It also brings to a stop, and in some cases, eliminates some interest and fees. All you do is pay ONE LOW monthly payment when choosing a credit counseling program.
Debt consolidation is an excellent tool that can help you manage and decrease your debt when you just can’t seem to do it on your own. There is no way that you can completely fix bad credit without the ability to reduce debt and pay your bills on time. However, once your debt has reached a certain level, this can seem almost impossible to accomplish.
A credit counsellor can provide you with the option of enrolling in a debt management plan, which provides immediate relief and allows repayment of debts without the high fees and negative ramifications of bankruptcy.
However, your choice has to be based upon your financial situation, as well as fit in with your own sitiuation. A debt consolidation program is the better choice of the ones given above. Read more other articles about premier credit card and zero percent credit cards.
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Risk assets recovered last night, Alcoa beating expectations, and the IMF saying recovery was likely from Q1 2010, all helping. Some also attributed the optimism to the better weekly jobless number, despite its seasonal distortion. The S&P500’s +0.4% gain saves it from breaching the critical level of 879, but only just. Oil was stuck at $$60, but copper rebounded 3.1%. The US yield curve was pressured higher,10yr treasuries up 10bp, but 3mth Libor managed another 1.5bp decline to 0.51%. UK mortgage lender Bradford and Bingley’s failure was officially recognised as a credit event by ISDA. Westpac (NZ) announced a 5yr domestic NZD bond issue, government guaranteed, priced at swap + 60bp.
The US dollar fell throughout the London and NY sessions, losing 1.1% across a basket. The G8 meeting discussed currencies only with respect to avoiding competitive devaluations, but China did add the reserve currency system should be improved. EUR moved from 1.3900 to 1.4030. GBP moved from 1.6100 to 1.6350. The BoE kept rates and QE unchanged, inciting short covering of the currency and selling of gilts. USD/JPY stalled around 93, the MOF issuing a statement the currency is being watched.
AUD hardly budged during the bounce in risk, ranging between 0.7800 and 0.7860.
NZD spiked to 0.6340 but spent most of the evening around 0.6300. AUD/NZD stabilised between 1.2400 and 1.2450.
US initial jobless claims fell a very steep 52k to 565k last week, their lowest level since January this year. However it is likely that the fall in claims is due to a seasonality distortion caused by the usual annual auto sector layoffs for new model retooling not taking place this year because there have already been substantial layoffs in the industry due to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler. If this is the case, it means the dip in claims, which should be temporary, is a misleading signal of job market strength. In the previous week, continuing claims surged to a new cycle high, after a month or more of stalled claims. This is a clearer signal of ongoing job market weakness.
US wholesale inventories fell 0.8%, a slower pace of decline in May than in the previous five months, though the high price of petroleum products probably muted the downside (the value of stocks is measured in this report). Thus far in Q2, inventories are still likely to be a drag on GDP growth.
Fedspeak: The economy is deteriorating ‘more slowly’, says Fed Governor Duke. The government’s support for the financial system is having an impact on the markets, banks and the economy.
The Bank of England left both interest rates and the size of the quantitative easing program unchanged following this week’s policy meeting, but we are likely to see the QE program expanded by at least £25bn following the quarterly forecasting round in August. That would take the QE asset purchase program to £150bn (£112 spent so far). A further QE extension is possible but would require the consent of the Treasury, which should be forthcoming. Such a move would go some way towards unwinding current market expectations that BoE interest rate increases are likely in early 2010. On the data front, the trade deficit of £6.3bn in June was the narrowest since August 2006, thanks to a 4% fall in imports outpacing a 1% decline on the export side.
Canadian housing starts rose 8.0% in June, on top of a 10.8% rise in May. The strength was in single family starts in urban areas, though the annual pace of decline of starts remains weak at -33.9% yr (improved from -48.4% yr in February).
Outlook
NZD should remain under 0.6350 today, and tonight’s direction will be determined by US equities behaviour. Despite last night’s bounce, risk sentiment retains a slightly downbeat tone, and we favour the NZD below 0.60 over the next month or two.
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In this tutorial you will apprentice how to apparatus axiological assay in your trading style. This is what some bodies alleged institutional Forex trading system.
You should apprentice the basal macroeconomic factors that access all-around market. This is alleged axiological analysis.
There is a abundant altercation amid traders that use alone abstruse assay and traders that use alone axiological analysis. For me this is alone academic. If there is advice out there you should anxiously watch it. Do not await alone in technicals or fundamentals. Use both. Back you accept a solid abstruse arrangement that is accurate by fundamentals again the adventitious that you are appropriate is imminent. Back technicals and fundamentals appearance in altered admonition again you should watch out. Do not be activate blessed with your Forex trading. Wait and see. Forex is not for prophets. You use accurate assay in adjustment to aerate the adventitious that you accurately admit what the bazaar has to accord you. Analyze thoroughly, accept a solid abstruse pattern, apperceive the axiological abutment of your assay and you accept a nice trading decision. Seize your accident altruism and you will be a winner.
Every nation has it’s axial coffer which is amenable for the able-bodied actuality of the economy. Axial banks watch some bread-and-butter factors that affect the abridgement and acclimatize their bread-and-butter action accordingly. These factors are appear consistently and the exact time of the advertisement is accepted in advance. These factors are the axiological indicators of the economy. The best important axial banks are FED of USA, ECB of European Union, BOJ of Japan and BOE of United Kingdom. There are abounding axiological indicators but there are few of them that are alleged the “market movers”. They are alleged so because back they are appear they accommodate to the bazaar the all-important beef to move. That happens because they accept a abundant appulse on abridgement and to traders’ positions also.
The best important affair you accept to apperceive about axiological assay is the bazaar apprehension of an indicator. Some analysts accommodate a apparent cardinal of the indicator to be announced. This has an appulse to the bazaar and traders are positioned accordingly. Back the indicator is appear it affects the bazaar alone back it is abundant altered that the bazaar expected. That happens because every accessible to the accessible advice is already taken into account. Back the new advice is appear again it has appulse on the bazaar alone if it is altered than expected.
Build up your plan. Apperceive in beforehand what important axiological indicators are to be appear the afterward week. Apprentice the accepted cardinal if it is accessible and try to anticipation what will appear if it comes in bigger of worse figure. This is difficult for the beginners but afterwards belief it will be easy.
There are abounding axiological indicators. US indicators accept the greatest appulse on market. European Union’s indicators accept beneath appulse unless they are abundant altered than expected. Watch out for axial banks arch admiral speaking out and giving clues about aggrandizement and absorption rates. Today these are the two drivers of the economy. Words like acute or actual acute about aggrandizement from axial bank’s active accept abundant appulse on the currencies.
When the aggrandizement is up axial banks try to accumulate it low by leveraging absorption rates. Back absorption ante are up again the bill is supported. Apprentice what bread-and-butter indicators reflect the aggrandizement and the accommodation of axial coffer about absorption ante and you accept an added apparatus in your armory in adjustment to trade.
Always watch out what the bazaar already knows because all these advice are reflected to the prices of the market. Back beginning important advice comes out apprentice it and position accordingly.
There is abounding advice about axiological indicators in the internet. Visit Bloomberg bread-and-butter agenda and Yahoo bread-and-butter calendar. Use keywords like “Forex fundamentals”, or “Forex bread-and-butter calendars” and you will acquisition what you need. Study the acceptation of these indicators and the relationships amid them. Best Forex providers accept a congenital in bread-and-butter agenda with their trading platforms. The time on these bread-and-butter calendars is frequently GMT. Apprentice your time area and the aberration amid your area and GMT and you will apperceive the exact time the indicator will be announced. In these bread-and-butter calendars bazaar consensus, if available, is already reported. Study anxiously the bread-and-butter indicators. You will eventually accept a abundant adviser to advice you in your trading.Learn more and double up your income here get forex megadroid and forex megadroid website
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Yesterday the SP500 hit 870 twice: at 12:00 and again at 2:00 Eastern. It held both times and ended the day at 879. 870 – 875 had been the SP500 target for weeks as the bottom of a trading range. So, the fact that it held, not once, but twice, is very encouraging. This forms a technical formation called a double bottom, which only means that an important level was tested by traders more than once. The market trading bears didn’t have enough selling power to push the index through that level for now. Any good earnings news like the better-than-expected Alcoa results yesterday will give the bulls more encouragement and may force out the bears at some point.
I noticed that all the cyclical / materials stocks were moving exactly with the SP500 all day Wednesday. This is an indication that materials and energy are a proxy for economic recovery. When the market feels the prospects for the economy become better, deep cyclicals and materials move higher. So FCX made a bottom at around $43.50 at both times and SU made a bottom at around $25.75. For both high beta stocks, they are off by more than 20% in the past two weeks, which means they are in their own mini-bear markets. (FCX is off over 30% from its June high).
So, is this a good time to buy? The long term thesis is inflation to correct the Federal deficits and pay for growth in money supply / weakened dollar. Commodities / materials are the best way to play that move. But is now the time?
I am waiting as there is a lot of downside momentum in oil and basic metals(copper). Many traders (probably too many for a contrarian like me), feel that oil is headed to $50. But industry experts tell us that any price below $70 today will shut down supply, leading to higher prices at some point as demand exceeds supply. I have small positions in energy (SU, PWE an UNG) but am out of basic materials (I normally use FCX and BHP). If the SP500 gets back above 900 with some conviction as shown by volume, I will consider adding to the above positions. I hope I can put money back in by next week.
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I have a broad range of interests in technology, engineering, design, finance and public policy; a BSBA degree in International Marketing from Arizona State University with undergraduate studies in Nuclear Engineering and Architecture from Oregon State University; I have more than 30 years experience in instrumentation and control design and product development.
Oil reversed early gains and dropped below $60 a barrel on Thursday as a downturn in the stock market added to pressure from high oil inventories and persistent concerns about the timing of any economic recovery.
Light crude for August delivery fell 45 cents to $59.69 a barrel and was on course for the seventh straight day of declines.
Earlier on Thursday, crude prices had rebounded as high as $61.62 after a 4% fall on Wednesday that meant oil was more than 15% lower so far in July.
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As a able bill banker I apperceive how difficult it can be to accomplish money on the forex market. It is a able-bodied accepted actuality that best bodies who allow in forex trading online lose – aloof ask any forex agent how abounding depleted, dormant, trading accounts they acquire on their books. The internet is ample with advertised abortion ante of amid 80% – 95% apropos those who acquire approved and afterwards bootless at the trading game. Although there is no official figure, one can about accomplish that it is a actual aerial percentage.
So why is this so? I acquire it is to do with a cardinal of key factors, which I will outline below.
A trader’s unrealistic expectations
I acquire that abounding bodies dispatch into the forex amphitheatre for the aboriginal time acquire a absolutely unrealistic appearance of what is complex in actuality a acknowledged banker and acquire unrealistic expectations of how abundant time, money (capital) and accomplishment is bare to accomplish success. There are no agnosticism abounding affidavit why bodies anticipate that forex trading is an accessible way to accomplish money, but I acquire the unrealistic expectations of abounding self-traders are mainly created by those adamant web marketers of assorted forex trading systems, automatic trading robots, and alleged forex adviser gurus. These apathetic promoters focus their business efforts at believing new traders, whilst claiming that authoritative austere money with their artefact or account requires little added than a few abrasion clicks. These articles and casework anatomy what I alarm the Great Online Forex Swindle or GOFS. What is bare is a little absoluteness analysis here! Quite simply, if all these articles were that good, we could all accord up our jobs and aloof let the money cycle into our coffer accounts aloof afterwards authoritative a few abrasion clicks, whilst the aloft all-around banks could blaze their actor dollar traders and alter them with $97 automatic trading robots. The sad actuality is that these things, over time, do not work!
Lack of forex education
Another actuality is that abounding traders acquire artlessly not had adapted forex apprenticeship or training, and as a consequence, eventually abatement on their brand accepting confronted the realities of this cruel market. Note that I am not talking about accepted apprenticeship here, I am talking about forex education. Bill trading is like any added barter or profession – you artlessly cannot aloof alpha to barter forex auspiciously after any affectionate of adapted education, convenance or training, but bodies anticipate they can, and anon apprentice otherwise. It is arroyo warfare out there and one artlessly needs to be prepared!
Too emotional
Another aloft acumen for abortion is that abounding bodies are too affecting back it comes to trading and let their hearts rather than their active do the trading. Forex is a numbers bold in abounding ways, and one needs to administer factors like facts, logic, commonsense and experience, rather than absolution analgesic affections of greed, fear, hope, acrimony and pride bones their trading accounts. I would go as far to say that one has to acquire a accurate blazon of appearance to accomplish at forex – not all of us are cut out to be traders, decidedly those who abridgement what I alarm affecting discipline. Let’s face it, we are ambidextrous with money actuality and it takes a accurate blazon of appearance to break cool, calm and calm back things alpha to go wrong.
Inappropriate trading systems
The abridgement of a forex trading arrangement (or “strategies”, as abounding bodies afield alarm them), or application a poor or inappropriate one, are added accidental affidavit why abounding forex traders fail. Trading systems exist, or are developed, to advice the banker to barter added considerately and systematically through the use of statistical indicators to advice the banker appraise accident or probability. Like so abounding added things, some forex trading systems are bigger than others. But, addition affair with them is that they charge fit with a trader’s own claimed appearance of trading to be of abundant good. What works for one trader, won’t necessarily assignment for another. If, for archetype a banker prefers intra-day trading, they should use an adapted abbreviate appellation system. Likewise, a best appellation banker should use, say, a circadian trading system. Matching of banker and trading arrangement is appropriately addition key to trading success or failure.
So what’s the solution?
Although I acquire accent a cardinal of factors which I acquire accord to the almost quick annihilation of the of the newbie forex trader, the aloft factors cannot be taken in isolation. They are all accidental factors and it is a aggregate of the aloft that brings abounding forex traders to their knees.
So how we do we abandoned these pitfalls? Well, there is no abracadabra formula; at atomic I haven’t appear beyond one yet. I acquire already mentioned that some traders acquire what it takes and some don’t. That’s aloof animal attributes and one has to acquire that. However, if one durably believes that they acquire it and appetite to break in the bold whatever it takes, my simple decree is as follows:
* For a start, don’t be believing and acquire all those forex artefact adverts and web sites able so abundant for so little.
* Get forex educated. There are endless of acceptable chargeless forex educational assets and web sites on the web, as able-bodied as academic paid-for courses. Once you acquire been educated, you get to accept why things do what they do, which helps to affected some of the affecting issues mentioned above.
* Convenance complete money management. Only barter what you can allow to lose, and get practised in trading with aloof 1-2% of your trading basic on anniversary trade. You will be afraid what this can do for your accepted trading confidence. Money administration advice and techniques are covered in best forex courses that are account their salt. Complete money administration practices will additionally advice with some of the affecting issues mentioned above.
* Get yourself a good, approved and activated forex trading arrangement that apparel your appearance of trading. For those who like to barter forex on the circadian charts, analysis out my FREE circadian forex trading arrangement at www.lindencourt.net/daily.htm
* Don’t await on achievement through the use of automatic trading software and alleged expert’s tips for your approaching trading success. Actuality absolutely is bigger than fiction back it comes to acknowledged forex trading.
So, get educated, get practised, and get trading.
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Contents at a Glance
1. 1. How to Make Money with Forex.
2. Testimonials
3. 2. What Is Forex Ambush 2.0 System All About?
4. Testimonials
5. 3. Forex Technology.
6. 4. How Does Forex Ambush 2.0 Signals System Work?
more…
Contents at a Glance
1. 1. How to Make Money with Forex.
2. Testimonials
3. 2. What Is Forex Ambush 2.0 System All About?
4. Testimonials
5. 3. Forex Technology.
6. 4. How Does Forex Ambush 2.0 Signals System Work?
7. Learn More About Forex Ambush 2.0 Here
8. New Guestbook
9. Leave your Forex software running and computer on and Forex Ambush 2.0 is designed to do the rest.
10. More Information about the Forex Ambush 2.0
less…
1. How to Make Money with Forex.
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Leave your Forex software running and computer on and Forex Ambush 2.0 is designed to do the rest.
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Forex Ambush 2.0 Review – Heed your Trailing Stop
Forex Ambush 2.0 relies on technology which was a long time in the making – developed by a group of 31 experienced traders, back-tested, retested – and continuously upgraded and evolved until the Forex …
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It was one of the worst pre-July 4th holiday trading sessions in the history of the stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 223 points or 2.63% in what was an across the board decline. For a significant portion of the trading day all 30 of the Dow components were in the negative. The technology heavy Nasdaq lost nearly 50 points or 2.67% as well and the broadest measure of the three, the S & p 500 Index was off 26.91 points or 2.91%. A large amount of the selling was attributed to the worse than expected non farm payroll report released this morning.
The employment situation report contains the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls and wage information. The report as a whole was mostly in line with the low end of expectations, however payrolls came in at -467,000 well off the largest estimates of -435,000 and a substantial miss from the median consensus estimates of -350,000. The unemployment rate came in slightly better than consensus at 9.5%. Also initial jobless claims were better than expected, neither of which helped the markets as they continued to focus on the payrolls throughout the day.
This week Citigroup was again in the headlines when it decided to piss people off in several new ways. With the government adding new restrictions on employee bonuses the bank decided to raise salaries, some up to 50%, in order to retain people they consider “key employees”. In a totally unrelated press release Citi said it would be hiking rates on the credit cards of up to 15 million customers. Citigroup was among the biggest recipients of federal aid receiving more than $45 billion in TARP funds. Since 2006 their stock has tumbled 95% and over the last six quarters they have lost close to $36 billion.
Another very unpopular company was in the news this week, American International Group or AIG effected a 1 for 20 reverse stock split on Wednesday. The measure was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders, but the stock fell over 22% on the day. Before the split the stock was trading at $1.16 per share on Tuesday, but was down more than 20% in the pre-market on Wednesday and closed the day at $18.08 per share. Executives said the move was necessary to prevent the stock from being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. In a strange coincidence the NYSE erroneously posted a suspension and delisting notice of AIG on the NYSE’s website, the notice was removed once the error was discovered.
Overall the stock markets have turned decidedly negative for the week and it was one of the worst first weeks of July in the history of the markets. For next week market investors will look to earnings as the driving factors for stocks. Alcoa reports its earnings on Tuesday which traditionally is the start of earnings season. Chevron, 3com, Progressive Corp among others all report their earnings as well. Next week is pretty light on economic data releases the most important ones to watch are jobless claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
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Stock Markets on Wednesday traded marginally higher before losing about half the gains heading into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 57 points or 0.68% to close at 8504.06, the Standard and Poors 500 Index closed up just over 4 points or 0.44% to end the day at 923.33 and the Nasdaq day gained 10.68 points or 0.58% finishing the session at 1845.72.
General Mills, the maker of Cheerios,Totinos,Hamburger Helper and other snack products reported earnings for their fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2009 before the bell this morning. For the fiscal year of 2009 net sales were us 8 percent to $14.7 billion and earnings per share excluding special items rose 13 percent to $3.98, well above analysts consensus estimates. For the fourth quarter ‘09 net income was $358.8 million or $1.07 per share, above the estimated .81 cents per share. The stock finished the day up 2.16 or 3.86% to close at 58.18 per share. The stock has been on a consistent climb since hitting March lows of around $46, but is still well off of its 52 week high of $72 per share set last September.
Constellation Brands, the largest wine company in the world, announced its fiscal first quarter 2010 results this morning. The company reporting net income of $6.5 million or 3 cents per share well off of its $44.6 million profit in the same quarter a year ago. The companies stock was higher on the day by 7.33% up to 13.61 per share after the company reiterated its profit outlook for the full fiscal year. “We are generally pleased with our quarterly results, which were in-line with our expectations,” said Robert Sands President and CEO in the earnings press release, “we took steps over the past 18 months to shift the focus of our strategy to building must-have brands that return the greatest profits and that represent good value for consumers.” The full press release is available on their website.
Today the ADP employment report was released and was higher than estimates. The report came in with 473,000 jobs lost during the month of June, this was much higher than analyst estimates of 394,000. The report showed the rate of job cuts slowed slightly from Mays 485,000 number, but was still a sign that the recession may drag out longer than people had hoped. The ISM Manufacturing number, a survey of over three hundred manufacturing firms on different aspects of their business, was released on Wednesday and came in at 44.8. This was the highest reading for the Index since last August and slightly higher than the average estimates of analysts of 44.5.
Motor vehicle sales for June were also reported by major automakers on Wednesday afternoon. Ford (F) had its smallest drop this year with sales falling 11% last month. On the other hand Chrysler had a 42% drop in auto sales, Toyota (TM) reported a 32% fall and Nissan (NSANY) had a 23% dip in the month of June. Despite those numbers Ford (F) shares were down 2.6% on the day, while Toyota and Nissan posted only modest declines of 0.3% and 0.6%.
Software company LogMeIn went public today in an uncertain ipo market and was trading significantly up throughout the day. The company makes on demand remote connectivity solutions for small and medium size businesses. The offering was for 6,666,667 shares of common stock and was priced at $16 per share, which was the high end of the range. LogMeIn (LOGM) expects to make $107 million on the offering which was trading above the $20 per share level in early afternoon action. The book managers for the offering were JP Morgan Securities and Barclays Capital Inc.
Tomorrow is the now much more anticipated release of the initial jobless claims report. After the ADP report showed greater than expected numbers no doubt analysts are revising their estimates. The initial jobless claims is a weekly report put out by the US Department of Labor on the number of individuals filing for unemployment for the first time. The consensus estimates on Wall Street were for 620,000 new applicants. But stock traders should expect this number to be higher around 625,000-626,000. Several small companies will be reporting earnings tomorrow Methode Electronics, Inc. symbol MEI estimate -0.16, Acuity Brands, Inc. symbol AYI estimate 0.57, MSC Industrial Direct Co. symbol MSM estimate 0.38 symbol MSCI Inc. symbol MXB estimate 0.24 per share. The earnings releases should not have any effect on the overall markets or the individual company sectors.
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